Introduction
Some questions deserve more space. That's what The Breakdown is for - stepping back from the week-to-week noise to examine the bigger picture.
For this inaugural issue, we’re going back to the foundation of everything: where are we in the economic cycle, how did we get here, and what comes next? The timing couldn’t be more appropriate, the dashboard just flipped to Stagflation, four signposts have triggered simultaneously, and markets are pricing a world where none of it matters.
Understanding your position in the cycle is the single most important input to positioning. More than any individual data point. More than any earnings report or Fed meeting. The regime dictates what works and what doesn’t across asset classes. Get it right, and the rest follows. Get it wrong, and you’re fighting the tape.
The post-pandemic cycle has been unlike anything in modern market history. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. The fastest inflation spike in forty years. The most aggressive hiking cycle since Volcker. And now, an easing cycle beginning with inflation still sticky and growth still positive. It’s a lot to make sense of.
This piece is your map.